A while back i read about how the most highly respected of economists that make predictions are those whose predictions are usually wrong. More specifically their fame is typically the result of a single prediction that somehow managed to come true. Then, their subsequent predictions are received as divinely inspired, and even though they turn out to be spectacularly wrong, no one had bothered to follow up, and so they never have to face the music. This post is not about how humans brains do the same thing (although there is a lot of evidence that they do). It’s not even about how Monsieur Kurzweil could be called to task on some of his Age of <insert here> Machines books predictions (although he could). No, this post is for me to make some predictions. I figure that in the 10 or so years it would take before someone could come to do some reckoning, this post will be hopelessly buried under at least 4 other posts, and i’ll end up scot free. Unless they come true, in which case i’ll be posting links to this from everywhere and i’ll be a superstar. Yeah!
1) I predict that within the next 10 years significant progress will have been made in understanding how human intelligence works, and in the development of computer algorithms that simulate it. There will still be a long way to go before they start taking over truly intelligent tasks, but enough of a stir will have been created that…
2) A burgeoning industry will develop around this intelligence beachhead as it will be easy to see the massive economic incentives involved. At the same time there will be individuals, groups, lobbyists, NGOs, and all other manner of organizations (including governments) that will be wringing their hands in collective worry about what the implications of this work will be. And rightly so, since it will be difficult to follow.
3) Some time later – no time prediction except inevitable – truly intelligent machines will be developed. I’ve written about this before, and so i won’t go over the details, but suffice to say i believe there is a roughly 95% chance that these machine will be beneficial to human civilization. Cross your fingers.
4) The machines will get into every human endeavour – and many more of which humans have never conceived – except one: athleticism. In the same way that narrow AI has produced artificial checkers, chess, and Jeopardy! champions, manufacturing has produced robots that can create products orders of magnitude better than any human with dumb tools could hope. (Check out the guy on TED that made a toaster from scratch.) There’s certainly been progress on both sides. But there’s a big difference. Continued advancement in AGI can, by all indications, be achieved with better software and more computing power. Better robots need these too, but they will also need better sensors and actuators, and you won’t have truly athletic robots until you have both the brains and the bodies. By sensors, i mean touch, heat, pinch, proprioception, et al. There are places where such things are being developed, but i believe they will lag far behind brain development. Besides, with the ability to create any specialized hardware they need for their own purposes, there will be as little incentive to create athletic robots as there is to create airplanes that fly like birds.
(Corollary: the T1000 will never be created. This may seem unfortunate, but lets face it… If the machines want to off us they will just start a city-size grow-up, burn it, and then roll around on wheels whacking us while we lie giggling in the streets. Fish in a barrel man.)
A final note. While i watched the last World Cup, i marveled at the skill of the players. Not only could they stand up and balance (hard enough for robots); not only could they run (beyond current robots); not only could they run and kick a ball at the same time (no comment needed)… These players can manage the game at at least 5 levels all at the same time. They can 1) manage to get a ball moving in the direction that they want, 2) keep said ball away from opponents by reading their movements and predicting their next actions, 3) track their teammates to assess who may be in a good position, 4) determine where to kick the ball such that a chosen teammate can successfully intercept the pass instead of an opponent, and 5) keep in mind and integrate the overall strategy of play for the entire game. Anyone who gives any thought to this cannot seriously pay due to the phrase “dumb jock”. These guys are athletic geniuses, and i predict they will be considered such for a long, long time to come.